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Monday, November 04, 2002

Election eve predict

My election eve predictions.

Maybe I can get busy working on my novel once this thing is over. Excuses, excuses!

If you're not interested in Illinois politics, don't bother reading on, but if you are, click the "more" link. Whatever you do, and wherever you are in the U.S., just vote.

Taking it from the top:

U.S. Senator. Democrat incumbent Dick Durbin hands down over Republican Jim Durkin. Jim barely raised any campaign funds compared to Durbin. Not that that should matter, but it does. One possible, and little discussed, wildcard that Durkin might have going for him: his name will be first on the ballot (I think) and some confuzed folks might think they're voting for Durbin. Possible, but not probable. Well, who knows.

Governor. This has got to go down in history as one of the most divisive and ugly campaigns in the history of Illinois. Republican Jim Ryan and Democrat Rod Blagojevich (spell that ten times fast) started this campaign with a very wide spread between the two of them, with Blagojevich way ahead of Ryan. I don't know what the current numbers are, but, according to some, that gap has closed considerably. However, I'll give it to Rod Blagojevich for the simple reason that, even though people really aren't confuzed between Jim Ryan and outgoing Governor George Ryan, people still relate the two just by virtue of their party. By not electing Ryan, the people of this state will think they can put the George Ryan legacy behind us. There are four candidates, however. On the Independent ticket is Marisellis Brown and on the Libertarian ticket is Cal Skinner. Bonus prediction: While neither Brown nor Skinner will come anywhere close to winning, they will both get more votes than an Independent or Libertarian ever got before in this state. Unfortunately, the message will be clear to everyone except the Republican and Democrat parties.

Lieutenant Governor: This is really dumb. In Illinois it's possible to have a governor from one party and a Lt. Governor from another party. Without looking, does anyone know who our current Lt. Governor is? I don't.. Democrat Pat Quinn wins over Republic Carl Hawkinson.

Attorney General: Another ugly campaign. On the Republican side we have Joe Birkett who is cut from the same political cloth that Jim Ryan is. That is not a good thing. On the Democratic side we have Lisa Madigan who is cut from the same political cloth as her father, Dem party boss Mike Madigan. Also not a good thing. This is a very tough race to call. Because I think people see the Madigan legacy as the greater of two evils, I'll give it to Joe Birkett. Gary Shilts is running on the Libertarian ticket. Gary will get the vote from a certain faction of people with poor vision who think it would be cool to have an Attorney General named Shitts. Hey, at first glance, that's what I thought his name was. I wonder if anyone, besides me, has thought of that.

Secretary of State: Democrat incumbent Jesse White over Republican Kris O'Rourke Cohn. He's done a fine job (read, no scandal) and people will go with the status quo.

Comptroller: Democrat Dan Hynes over Republican Tom Ramsdell. Tom will be listed on the ballot as "Thomas Jefferson Ramsdell" in an attempt to be confuzed as Thomas Jefferson. Hey, I'm loopy.

Treasurer: Republican Judy Barr Topinka gets it over Democrat Tom Dart, even though Dart tried to portray Topinka as some kind of glory hound. Really! Is that the best he could come up with?

17th Congressional (my district): Democrat Lane Evans takes the prize over Republican Peter Calderone.

18th Congressional: Geez, I still can't believe the Democrats never got anyone to run against Republican Ray LaHood .

19th Congressional: From the What Were They Thinking Department, both of these incumbents were cut a raw deal by the folks who drew the new map. Chalk that one up to another case of really disgusting Illinois politics. This race will be very close. President Bush was in Springfield on Sunday stumping for the Republican party and John Shimkus. That'll probably get him some extra votes. Therefore, I'll say John Shimkus over Democrat David Phelps.

50th State Senator: Republican incumbent Larry Bomke because he's status quo, over Democrat Don Tracy. (I'm losing steam.)

99th Representative: Republican incumbent Raymond Poe takes it again, leaving Democrat Don Craven standing in the dust.

Posted by Marie at November 4, 2002 12:47 AM

Comments

What happened to this Senate race? We go from the heated and crucial Fitzgerald vs. Mosely-Braun last time (in which I voted Reform, thank you very much) to this slam dunk campaign. Not that I have love for either party, but did the GOP not see a need to win this seat? Durbin isn't the straw man that Carol M-B was (I could have beaten her, I think, the way she was hated south of...well, Joliet) but at least TRY.

Then again, I guess no real Senate race saved us from more attack ads. Good show, Republicans.

Meanwhile, Jesse White could run for God and I'd vote for him. I was honored to be able to meet him a couple months ago; there's just something about him. Yeah, the Secretary of State's office isn't exactly the hardest job in the state, but we have gotten our last two Governors from there. I hope he follows Ryanovich.

Posted by: Peter at November 4, 2002 8:32 PM

Interesting point about the Senate race and the Republican party. From my little corner of the world, it looks like the party did very little for Durkin. I could be wrong, though. I think it would have been a much different race if Oberwies had won the primary. $$$$$

I like Jesse White too. When I lived in Chicago (lonnng time ago), I got to see the Jesse White Tumblers at many a street fair. Something about him? Oh, yeah! He easily projects to those kids that hard work and dedication and belief in yourself and your team equals great rewards and skin color isn't a factor in that equation. Well, that's one impression I got, anyway.

Posted by: Marie at November 4, 2002 10:18 PM

We voted at 6:30 this morning. We've voted together for the past 26 yrs... although not always for the same candidate! ^_^.

Posted by: Beverly at November 5, 2002 7:26 AM

Hi Bev. We voted late, as usual.

Posted by: Marie at November 5, 2002 10:36 PM

Hi Marie,
I remember the only time we voted "not in the morning"... Our son was 3 days old...his first venture outside the hospital was to the polling place. He voted with me...still had the hospital bracelets on.

Posted by: Beverly at November 6, 2002 7:14 PM